Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Where should an investor put money today...

Equities have not given any positive return in the last one month.
Debt funds are negative since Jan 09...
Commodities are also falling...
So, where can investor put in money right now?

We are in uncertain zone..the risky assets had significant run up in the last few months on the expectations of a global recovery. It is still expectation and the numbers have to still show up. In the last one month, the momentum build from Mar 09 to May 09 on the recovery theme is faltering with a downward bias.

On top of it, the rain god has not been kind. Mansoon is late and sub optimal. On top of it, as per reports in the paper today, government has completed 16% of the projected fiscal deficit for 2009-10 in April itself..

The basic premise of the recovery is that lower interest rates and government spending will spur consumption and help in reviving the economy. If government borrows more, resulting in higher interest rates, the basic assumption on which recovery theme has been built, may not hold. Private consumption and investment may not revive back and growth expectation may falter.

So given the uncertainty, a fixed deposit with a bank or cash funds may be the best option in the short term.

No comments: