I think debt might be on its way to come back... This is relatively contrary to what market has been saying... where people are expecting yields to go up as growth would resume...
i have slightly different view point...
commodity markets are typically lead indicator and are saying that demand is slowing down. oil has corrected more than 15% in the last few weeks.. Typically, if growth is happening, demand should increase and oil should go up.
US yields are falling.. the 10 yr is at 3.30%, way off from the peak of 3.9%+.. The US government is talking about second stimulus.. my assumption is that if things are improving, why would the government talk about second stimulus when they know the risk of printing money. so it means that things are not imroving..
Equity market is typically the last to follow and may have gone ahead of itself... so should it fall... the inevitable answer might be "yes". And as usual, the tpyical retail or HNI investor who came in the last two months, will loose.. I hate to say, but the probability of this happening is high.
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